HypeCycles

I’ve now lived long enough that I’ve seen many tech hype cycles come and go, to the point where I actually have trouble remembering all of them. So here’s my attempt at a chronicle. These aren’t intended to be about hyped technologies or buzzwords, quite; NoSQL and REST were certainly buzzwords at their time but not generally buzzwords that were getting billion-dollar investments. In the end this is about investment money more than anything else.

• 1998-2001: Dotcom Bubble
• 1999-2006: Java
• 2004-2007: Web 2.0
• 2007-2010: The Cloud
• 2010-2015: Social media
• 2012-2015: Internet of Things
• 2013-2015: Big Data
• 2017-2021: Blockchain
• 2021-present: AI

I’m sure I’m missing one or two, but it’s devastatingly hard to find any news or history stuff that actually lists them instead of just talking about one or two – usually the most recent one and the dotcom bubble.

Also-ran’s/attempts/minor bubbles:

• grid computing
• web3
• 2012: 3D printing
• 2015: Autonomous vehicles

Notes, caveats and observations:

• Dates are rough and mostly based off of Wikipedia.
• These can and do overlap. There can also be gaps, though the incentive to close gaps by creating a new hype bubble is VERY high.
• There really tends to be only one at a time though.
• These tend to be driven by silicon valley investments. It’s gone on so long that silicon valley finance is its own weird culture by now, and there is only a very loose connection with it and any reality.
• Despite these momentary ups and downs, the overall amount and rate of money being funneled into tech is absurdly huge and continually increasing.

References:

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gartner_hype_cycle
• https://isc.ifma.org/the-most-hyped-technology-of-every-year-from-2000-2018-may-june-2019/
• Notes and cleanup to incorporate: https://lobste.rs/s/mnj6yg/tech_hype_cycles